Ray Kurzweil, a leading futurist and visionary, wrote a book titled “The Singularity is Near” way back in 2005. His new book coming out in 2023, is titled “The Singularity is Nearer”. Ray makes predictions of this or that happening as a result of technological advancement, and sometimes, perhaps even often, he gets it right. His visions are worth paying attention to as we seek guidance through uncertain and rapidly changing times.
One of Kurweil’s most useful current visions states that humans will not lose control of AI, but rather it will become an ever more fruitful collaboration. He sees AI as being an add-on to human consciousness, rather than something separate with a “will” of its own. He reminds us also of Asimov’s 3 Robot Laws, that circumscribe robot behavior to protect humans.
The first law is that a robot shall not harm a human, or by inaction allow a human to come to harm. The second law is that a robot shall obey any instruction given to it by a human, and the third law is that a robot shall avoid actions or situations that could cause it to come to harm itself.
(We know that much of “the Law” becomes extremely complex in practice, so one might have some caution about how well Robot Laws would work in the real, or perhaps virtual, world(s) )
Kurzweil suggests such an AI add-on might take the form eventually of Nanobots circulating in our brain, providing some amalgam of our brains power, AI power, and the data universe of the internet. We can discover some of his thinking from his upcoming book during the YouTube talks with Tyson linked here.
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Collaboration of humans with AI is on the upward J part of the graph, with ever newer versions of AI supported knowledege engines, text, and image creation rapidly arriving.
What sort of medium are we now moving into?…How do we arrange our furniture and make ourselves comfortable within a world greatly run by “knowledge machines”? See a following post coming soon to PSA quoting Benedict Evans, giving his take on the ChatGPT and similar AI, and how it is changing our world even today.
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The end of 2022 finds us jogging faster to keep up. We are delving into deep space with the Webb telescope, announcements arrive of fusion reactors producing a net plus of energy, AI algorithm new versions come quickly. Questions of privacy and free speech and the plusses and minuses of various forms of social media abound.
Yes, we have been living in the world of algorithms for some time, but with machine learning becoming ever more capable, so are the algorithms, and the pace of advancements is stunning. (see Evans on AI)
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We don’t know how sudden advancements in AI and knowledge engines affect learning, and what should be taught for jobs of today/tomorrow, and how it should be taught.
Some are sounding an alarm that knowledge engines such as ChatGPT will replace a large number of knowledge worker type jobs/ careers in the next five years. Such as lawyers and doctors, and other professions where knowledge has been accumulated over years of higher education; whereas much of this knowledge is a query or two away interacting with ChatGPT.
Evan’s take is more skeptical about what AI will bring in the near term, if we understand his newsletter comments correctly. Perhaps Evans is more in alignment with Kurzweil’s “the human part will always be indispensable” vision.
This knowledge worker warning comes on top of earlier predictions that robots will replace workers in both manufacturing and service industries. Not all predictions come to pass, or in the way they are foretold, of course, and every new technology affects everything else, not just the obvious things we predict.